IPL 2025 is gradually reaching its conclusion. However, the excitement among fans is at its peak. The last few league matches have added immense thrill to the tournament. The teams that qualified first for the playoffs have been losing one after another, making the battle for the top two spots and a place in Qualifier 1 very interesting. Only two league matches remain, and these two matches will decide the top two teams.
Today’s match between Punjab Kings and Mumbai Indians promises to be very exciting, while the final league-stage match will be played on Tuesday between Royal Challengers Bangalore and Lucknow Super Giants. Gujarat Titans suffered a heavy defeat against Chennai Super Kings on Tuesday, which has complicated their chances.
This was GT’s second consecutive loss, as they were earlier beaten by Lucknow Super Giants. However, GT is still in the race for the top two but will have to depend on other teams’ results. Let’s take a look at which team among Gujarat, Punjab, Bangalore, and Mumbai has the strongest claim for a top-two finish after already qualifying for the playoffs…
Here is the current points table:
| Rank | Team | Matches | Wins | Losses | No Result | Points | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gujarat Titans (Q) | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 18 | +0.254 |
| 2 | Punjab Kings (Q) | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 17 | +0.327 |
| 3 | Royal Challengers Bangalore (Q) | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 17 | +0.255 |
| 4 | Mumbai Indians (Q) | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 16 | +1.292 |
| 5 | Delhi Capitals (E) | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 15 | +0.011 |
| 6 | Sunrisers Hyderabad (E) | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 13 | -0.241 |
| 7 | Lucknow Super Giants (E) | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 12 | -0.337 |
| 8 | Kolkata Knight Riders (E) | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 12 | -0.305 |
| 9 | Rajasthan Royals (E) | 14 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 8 | -0.549 |
| 10 | Chennai Super Kings (E) | 14 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 8 | -0.647 |
Equation to Finish in the Top Two:
1. Winner of Today’s Punjab vs Mumbai Match Will Secure a Top-Two Spot
Today, Punjab Kings and Mumbai Indians face off in Jaipur. The winning team will confirm its place in the top two and play Qualifier 1. Punjab currently has 17 points, and a win today will take them to 19 points. Besides Punjab, only RCB can also reach 19 points. Therefore, a Punjab win guarantees their top-two finish.
However, if Punjab loses, they will remain on 17 points, while Mumbai will finish with 18 points. Mumbai currently has the best net run rate (NRR) among all teams by a large margin. A win will further improve their NRR, allowing them to overtake Gujarat and claim a top-two spot. Gujarat’s fate now depends on the RCB vs Lucknow match. In this scenario, Mumbai’s place in Qualifier 1 will be confirmed because only RCB can surpass them in points and NRR. All other teams will remain behind Mumbai.
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2. The Match Between RCB and Lucknow on Tuesday is Crucial
The last league match between RCB and Lucknow Super Giants will be played on Tuesday at Lucknow’s Ekana Stadium. Lucknow has already been eliminated from the playoffs, but they will try their best to spoil RCB’s chances. If RCB wins, they will reach 19 points, top the table, and secure a top-two spot. If Lucknow wins, RCB may have to settle for third or fourth place, while Gujarat will remain in the top two with 18 points.
However, this depends on Mumbai beating Punjab or Punjab defeating Mumbai by a huge margin of 200-250 runs (which is unlikely given Mumbai’s strong NRR). In that case, Gujarat will want Mumbai to beat Punjab and RCB to lose to Lucknow. A win for RCB ensures their place in the top two, pushing Gujarat down to third or fourth.
3. What If the Match is a No Result?
If the Punjab vs Mumbai match is abandoned due to rain or any other reason (resulting in no result), both teams will get one point each. In this case, Gujarat will finish in the top two, while Mumbai will have to settle for third or fourth.
If RCB beats Lucknow, RCB will join Gujarat in the top two. If Lucknow beats RCB, RCB will finish third or fourth, and Punjab will get a top-two spot. If both Punjab-Mumbai and RCB-Lucknow matches are abandoned, Gujarat’s place in the top two is confirmed. Between RCB and Punjab, the team with the better net run rate will join Gujarat in the top two.
Why Do Teams Want to Finish in the Top Two?
The playoff stage begins on May 29. Qualifier 1 will be played on May 29 in Mohali, followed by the Eliminator on May 30 at the same venue. Qualifier 2 and the final will be held in Ahmedabad on June 1 and June 3, respectively.
In Qualifier 1, the top two teams in the points table face each other. The winner goes directly to the final, while the loser gets another chance in Qualifier 2.
The Eliminator is played between the third and fourth-placed teams and is a knockout match. The losing team is eliminated from the IPL, while the winner plays Qualifier 2 against the loser of Qualifier 1. The winner of Qualifier 2 then meets the Qualifier 1 winner in the final. The IPL champion will be decided on June 3 this year.