Pakistan’s path to qualify for 2023 World Cup semi-finals: Updated scenario for Babar Azam & Co after win over NZ

Pakistan's path to qualify for 2023 World Cup semi-finals

In a rain-affected World Cup match in Bengaluru, Fakhar Zaman delivered a stunning century in just 63 balls, helping Pakistan secure a 21-run (DLS method) victory over New Zealand. Zaman’s unbeaten 126 off 71 balls propelled Pakistan to a score of 200-1 in 25.3 overs before rain disrupted play, and Pakistan was declared the winner as they were comfortably ahead of New Zealand during the two rain interruptions in this high-scoring encounter. Earlier, New Zealand’s star performer in the tournament, Rachin Ravindra, scored an impressive 108, while Kane Williamson fell just short of a century with 95 runs during his comeback, guiding New Zealand to a formidable total of 401-6 after being asked to bat.

This victory was crucial for Pakistan to keep their hopes alive for a spot in the tournament’s semi-finals. With this win, Pakistan is now level on points with New Zealand and Afghanistan, although New Zealand holds the advantage in Net Run Rate (NRR) with a NRR of +0.398, while Pakistan has finally achieved a positive NRR of +0.036 after the win. Afghanistan, on the other hand, is on par with these two teams in terms of points but lags behind in NRR calculations with a -0.330 NRR. Afghanistan still has two matches remaining (against Australia and South Africa), giving them an advantage in terms of games left to play.

As Pakistan gears up for their final group stage match against England, they not only need a victory but also depend on other results to go in their favor. Let’s explore the possible scenarios for Pakistan to qualify for the semi-finals:

Scenario 1 – Sri Lanka defeats New Zealand, and Pakistan defeats England

When Pakistan faces England on November 11, they will have a clear understanding of what it takes to secure a spot in the World Cup semi-finals. After defeating New Zealand, Pakistan’s hopes rely on Sri Lanka’s performance against New Zealand in their final group match on November 9.

If Sri Lanka emerges victorious in that game and Pakistan beats England in their last match, Pakistan will accumulate 10 points, surpassing New Zealand by two points. To strengthen their position, Pakistan would also need either Australia or South Africa to defeat Afghanistan, preventing them from reaching 10 points. However, if Afghanistan wins both of their matches, Pakistan’s fate will depend on Net Run Rate.

Also read: Delhi Stadium ODI Records and Stats- Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka World Cup 2023

Scenario 2 – New Zealand defeats Sri Lanka, and Pakistan defeats England

In this scenario, Pakistan faces a tougher challenge as New Zealand already holds a higher NRR. In such a case, Pakistan will hope that New Zealand’s margin of victory remains as narrow as possible. For instance, if New Zealand wins by just 1 run, Pakistan would need to beat England by a margin of 130 runs or more to secure a semi-final spot.

Once again, Afghanistan remains a potential threat, and Pakistan would rely on Australia and South Africa to defeat Afghanistan in their respective matches.

IPL 2024

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