With India and South Africa securing their places in the men’s ODI World Cup semifinals, the competition for the remaining two spots has intensified. Australia is on the brink of claiming the third spot, while Pakistan, New Zealand, and Afghanistan are locked in a battle for the fourth position.
Reviewing the points table, Australia has accumulated 10 points from seven matches, placing them in third position. Following closely are New Zealand and Pakistan, both with 8 points. However, due to a superior Net Run Rate (NRR), New Zealand holds a higher position than Pakistan.
Afghanistan, initially considered a dark horse in the tournament, also has 8 points but has played one match less. When they face Australia at Wankhede, the underdogs have a significant opportunity to climb to the fourth position and level with Australia.
Here’s a breakdown of the qualification scenarios for Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan:
Australia
- Played: 7, Pts: 10, NRR: 0.924
- Remaining matches: vs Afghanistan, Bangladesh
Australia has a relatively straightforward path to secure the third spot and a spot in the semifinals. Beating Afghanistan in the upcoming match would guarantee their semifinal berth and third place.
Even if Australia loses to Afghanistan, it would require them to lose both remaining matches, against comparatively weaker opponents, for any significant impact. In this case, NRR would come into play.
Additionally, if Pakistan and New Zealand lose their final league matches, Australia would progress to the final four based on their superior NRR (0.924).
New Zealand
- Played: 8, Pts: 8, NRR: 0.398
- Remaining match: vs Sri Lanka
New Zealand, despite a strong start, faced four consecutive losses and are at risk of elimination. Even if they win against Sri Lanka, they may miss the semifinals. For New Zealand to reach the finals, Afghanistan would need to win their remaining matches, and Australia must defeat Bangladesh.
The best-case scenario for New Zealand is a win against Sri Lanka, Afghanistan losing both their matches, and England beating Pakistan. This would secure New Zealand’s spot in the finals.
If both New Zealand and Pakistan win their last league fixtures, and Afghanistan wins at least one, all three would be tied at 10 points, bringing NRR into play, where New Zealand holds an advantage.
However, weather may pose a challenge for New Zealand, with predicted rain in Bengaluru throughout the week. In case of washouts, New Zealand would only reach nine points, and a win for either or both of Pakistan and Afghanistan would take them to 10 points.
Afghanistan
- Played: 7, Pts: 8, NRR: -0.330
- Remaining matches: vs Australia, South Africa
Afghanistan finds themselves in a tricky situation, but two upsets can propel them to the semifinals. Among New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, only Afghanistan has the chance to finish with 12 points, which would eliminate the other two from the semifinal race.
Afghanistan’s challenge lies in their NRR (-0.330), the lowest among the three. Their best qualification chances are if both Pakistan and New Zealand lose their final league matches, and Afghanistan wins at least one of their remaining matches.
Pakistan
- Played: 8, Pts: 8, NRR: 0.036
- Remaining match: vs England
Pakistan has endured a challenging journey but is still in contention for the semifinals. Their path is intricate, and they will depend on other results even if they defeat England in their last league match.
The best scenario for Pakistan is winning against England and hoping for a Sri Lankan victory against New Zealand, while Afghanistan loses both their matches.
If New Zealand beats Sri Lanka, Pakistan would need to outperform England by a significant margin to rely on NRR for qualification.
The competition is intense, and the final results will depend on a combination of match outcomes, NRR, and even the unpredictable factor of weather conditions.